The global ruling class frequently utilizes the phrase "net zero" when discussing the concept of global climate change. While the words seem simple on the surface, understanding the concept and its potential for achieving the goal of reducing global temperatures is so important. As well, we need to understand how other natural processes that are completely out of our control may impact global climate.
Let's start with a definition:
Net zero refers to a state in which the volume of greenhouse gases going into the atmosphere is removed from the atmosphere. Any ongoing emissions of greenhouse gases must be balanced by the removal of those gases.
It is important to note that net zero does NOT necessarily mean that there will be no greenhouse gas emissions (i.e. absolute zero), rather that certain actions can be undertaken to balance greenhouse gas emissions with the removal of those gases through various means. For instance, while China and India may continue to increase their greenhouse gas emissions, other nations could use sequestration, solar and wind power, forests, wetlands and grasslands and other technologies like carbon capture and storage to reduce their own emissions levels to less than the actual volumes that they emit, thereby offsetting growing emissions by the aforementioned nations. It is important to understand that nature can also absorb carbon dioxide without mankind's intervention, in particular, at the ocean-atmosphere interface where ocean waters absorb carbon which is ultimately transferred to ocean sediments.
Here is a quote regarding net zero from the University of Oxford's Net Zero website:
"The ‘net’ in net zero is important because it will be very difficult to reduce all emissions to zero on the timescale needed. As well as deep and widespread cuts in emissions, we will likely need to scale up removals. In order for net zero to be effective, it must be permanent. Permanence means that removed greenhouse gas does not return into the atmosphere over time, for example through the destruction of forests or improper carbon storage."
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concluded that net zero needed to be achieved by 2050 to retain the possibility of reaching the 1.5 degree Celsius global temperature increase, a number that was reached through the use of modelling.
Here is a table from the United Nations Emissions Gap Report 2024 "No more hot air...please" report showing emissions from various nations and regions of the world:
Not surprisingly, there are many pitfalls with the concept of net zero as follows:
1.) national net zero target dates vary widely and are frequently changed
2.) some nations choose to ignore emissions from certain economic sectors
3.) net zero targets are not legally binding
4.) some nations link emissions reduction targets to their rate of economic growth (i.e. emissions intensity) while others do not
Some wealthy nations have also funded greenhouse gas offset projects outside of their borders in developing nations while still emitting high volumes of greenhouse gases within their home territory.
Now for my opinion (not that you might care but I'll offer it anyway). Yes, I believe that greenhouse gas levels in the atmosphere are rising. That said, I don't believe that the rising levels are necessarily entirely anthropegenic and that the net zero plans being put in place will likely do very little to lower these levels. Greenhouse gas components include methane, nitrous oxide, ozone and chlorofluorocarbons and, most importantly, water vapour which is the largest component of greenhouse gas, being responsible for about half of earth's greenhouse effect. Here is a quote from NASA:
"Data from satellites, weather balloons, and ground measurements confirm the amount of atmospheric water vapor is increasing as the climate warms. (The United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Sixth Assessment Report states total atmospheric water vapor is increasing 1 to 2% per decade.) For every degree Celsius that Earth’s atmospheric temperature rises, the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere can increase by about 7%, according to the laws of thermodynamics."
Basically, it's like a self-perpetuating or self-amplifying system. Temperatures rise resulting in higher volumes of water vapour which further increase temperature which further increases atmospheric water vapour content etcetera ad infinitum.
Let's look at two of the many reasons why net zero may be unachievable. Climate is likely influenced by solar activity, a controversial phenomenon which is being studied by scientists and is not fully understood as shown in this study:
Volcanic eruptions can also have a significant impact on global climate since they emit carbon dioxide, particulate matter and, in the case of submarine volcanoes, water vapour, into the atmosphere as shown in this study:
The January 2022 Hunga Tonga - Hunga Ha'apai eruption in Tonga is estimated to have released 150 million metric tons of water vapour along with 0.5 to 1.5 metric megatons of sulphur dioxide into the atmosphere, raising the global levels of stratospheric water vapour by 10 percent. In this case, the eruption resulted in a temporary but notable cooling of the tropical stratosphere.
The massive eruption of Krakatoa in 1883 in Indonesia caused oceans to cool for nearly a century and had a significant impact on atmospheric temperatures as well. Volcanic carbon dioxide does have the potential to promote global warming whereas volcanic sulphur dioxide has the potential to lower global temperatures so the impact of volcanic eruptions on the global climate is heavily impacted by the type of gases contained in the eruptions.
Here is a diagram showing how volcanic gases interact with the atmosphere:
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